Before you hide behind the sofa

We are daily bombarded with stories of ‘deaths’ – Death counters are the staple diet of media companies holding us fascinated, and keeping the advertisers happy. They profit from this crisis.

Who hasn’t been persuaded that we will end up like Italy? Or Spain? Countries vastly different than our own in the very make up, culture and attitude of their citizens

Would it surprise you to learn the average age of death in Italy at 78.5 years? Not a bad innings. What would they reasonably expect to live to in Italy? 82 years.

Of course we need to protect the NHS, and not allow them to get swamped. But in my opinion, and being the type of person only persuaded by hard data, I believe the new hospitals we are building should more than adequately be able to cope with the demand we should expect from this virus. And allow the country back to work

Some may take the view I take a rather cold approach to this matter. That you see yourself as decent human beings and every life must be preserved, if we can. I totally get your point.

 

But I believe the future of our children and those still young enough should be the ultimate determining factor of how we approach matters. Wrecking our economy to save people (two thirds, to one half would likely die this year anyway) is far too high a price to pay. In my opinion.

Where do I get such data? Well read on. What follows are not my words. However articles like this, informed, intelligent columns arguing against the total shut downs advocated by media types like Piers Morgan urgently give us pause for thought.

” The news today tells us that the UK has recorded 11658 cases of the Covid-19 virus and 578 deaths up from 9529 cases and 465 deaths yesterday and that is very sad, as any death is sad. But let’s try and put that into perspective.

The population of the UK as at 21 March 2020 is 67,786,872. The total deaths in the UK in 2019 was 530,857 By simple mathematics this equates to: 10,208 people die every week. 1,458 people die every day. Of the people that have died of Coronavirus, according to Professor Neil Fergusson (Imperial Collage, London.) 1/2 to 2/3 of those who have died would have died this year from their existing underlying medical conditions.

To date total number of people dying from Cv-19 is 578, which by Professor Fergusson’s calculation would mean that the Covid-19 as the prime cause of death would be between 192 and 289. The first officially recorded case of the Covid-19 in the UK was on 12/02/2020 that is 6 weeks and 2 days to 26 March 2020. This would equate to say 250 Covid-19 deaths above the 64,152 average deaths for this period.

If you care to go to the government’s Centres for Disease Control and Prevention website you will discover that from 1/10/2019 to 21/3/2020 Influenza estimates in the UK, are: Flu illnesses between 33,000,000 – 54,000,000: Flu medical visits between 18,000,000 – 26,000,000: Flu hospitalizations between 400,000 – 730,000: Flu deaths between 24,000-62,000. Did we crash the country for these?

You may have read about the Kings College Coronavirus Symptom reporting App. Which was launched on 24 March, within 24 hrs they had 650,000 responses. They calculated that about 10% of the responses indicated that the responders had had the Covid-19 virus and if extrapolated to the whole of the UK, this would mean that 6.5M people in the UK have already had the virus. Oxford have also done a study which, they say has revealed, that at least 500,000 people have already had the virus. This means that the Kings College app indicates that the death rate is .00000512% and the Oxford study indicates that the death rate is .0005%.

This is why I think the world has gone mad. We have closed down hundreds of thousands of small businesses many of whom will go bankrupt. Millions of employees are out of work and have no income. The suffering and anguish which a huge number of people are suffering is totally unnecessary.

Millions of people are isolating themselves with untold consequences for their mental health. The government has committed billions, possibly trillions that will have to be paid back, placing a huge burden on the next generation. The interest payable will probably end up costing more than we spend on the NHS. Taxes will sky rocket. The government have taken, totally unnecessary, draconian powers, of which Castro in Cuba would be envious. They are even encouraging us to spy on each other.

If we go back over history and see what the experts have predicted about all the recent epidemics and how wide of the mark most of them were and are. We saw the expert predictions that mad cow disease would kill 150,000 not the below 200 that have died so far. Why are we trusting any of them now. Early in the Coronavirus scare, a UK company offered the government Covid-19 testing kits at £6. If they had taken them up, none of this would be necessary.

Is all of this being done to keep me and others of my age alive for a few more years?

Crazy.

THIS IS PROJECT FEAR ON A HUGE SCALE. BORIS JOHNSON SHOULD START LEADING NOT FOLLOWING. WHEN HE IS BACK AT WORK NEXT WEEK, LET’S ALL GET BACK TO WORK ”

end.

I endorse this view, evidently from one of the vulnerable group. Public health and economic health go hand in hand and we urgently need to get back to work. Fine, some may view this as heartless, the work of statisticians. But we must look beyond the next few weeks to our very future. A future where thousands of businesses on which we depend go bankrupt. Surely you see the handouts cannot last? Consider what happens when the music stops? Who will be providing the jobs?

Build the extra hospitals and unlock the working people of Britain now Boris.

I hope you share or comment fairly with your considered views.

 

Geoff